Deliberate leaking/briefing of the press about UK interest in joining NAFTA was designed to do one thing – unblock the Brexit talks. We believe NAFTA is a plausible prospect and hence the EU should view it as such. This is the last card the UK had to play – meaning that it either works or the UK’s focus needs to move elsewhere. The probability of a final deal is at 40% but could go lower without a quick breakthrough.
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