Articles
Italy – History Prevents Change
This is the first of three reports delving into the background of, and prospects for, the Italian Elections in March 2018. We cover the historical background to important institutions/groups, the development of current parties/political leaderships and the standings...
TPP11 and Trade
The TPP12 became 11 but a reduced version will come into effect. The deal structure has been left so that a future U.S. administration could relatively easily choose to join. The Trump obsession with bilateral trade deficits is a crude measure of economic activity but...
US, India and Pakistan
U.S. relations with India and Pakistan have been very volatile over the years, due to larger geopolitical concerns and misunderstandings as to what each side was looking to achieve. A pattern has emerged over the last three U.S. administrations - move closer to India...
Global Information Flow
The Great Firewall and other cyber censorship regimes are being used by an increasing amount of countries to constrain/prevent free speech. This has consequences as to where ICT companies from certain jurisdictions can sell products but also in terms of idea flow and...
U.S.A and China Divide the World
The Trump administration has finally started to develop a coherent strategy to counter Chinese moves it perceives as damaging. One-Belt-One-Road could be a geopolitical game-changer but its sheer size and complexity increases execution risk. There will be greater...
Brexit Phase Two
The UK seems, contrary to most press coverage, to have obtained its two most important priorities in the Phase One talks. Moving to Phase Two is helpful but the stage is set for a long-running and bruising contest of wills. Conservative rebels have undermined the UK's...