Articles
The Fate of Southern Africa
Replacements for both Zuma and Mugabe will be decided before the end of 2017. The fate of Zimbabwe and South Africa now hang on the outcomes of such choices. Real reform that strengthens institutions, reinforces competent macroeconomic management and underpins...
The Middle East Chessboard
We have tried to create a series of heuristics for investors derived from newsflow and the potential for greater tension in the Middle East. Those in favour of the current status quo will try to reduce tension but those pushing for change will seek to raise it. Higher...
Saudi Arabia and a Major Choice
A purge, accompanied by higher tensions throughout the Middle East, has raised oil prices and will likely deter needed foreign investment. We believe that Saudi Arabia has an important choice to make with relation to its main medium/long-term geopolitical partner -...
The Italian Job – Another Referendum
Although different from Catalonia the movement for greater autonomy of northern regions in Italy is gaining political ground. The results of the October 22nd referendum in Lombardia and Veneto will be a key driver for the general election in 2018. While the call for...
Referendums and Political Risk
The idea of secession is contagious and moves across regions and continents. States are usually against any kind of change to the status quo and need to choose between the five main actions available to them. Kurdistan and Catalonia are the most acute problems right...
Saudi Aramco and Geopolitics
Lots of speculation (officially denied) suggest that the Aramco IPO could be shelved in favour of a private sale. We believe this would allow Saudi Arabia to reap most of the geopolitical benefits without the hassle of an intrusive and complex share listing. SWFs...