Articles
Brexit Logjam
The UK seems to believe that it has the upper-hand on the legal case relating to the Brexit bill. This unwillingness to roll-over is imperative for generating a workable eventual deal but it has put the European negotiators into a difficult position - take the matter...
The Two Koreas and Geopolitics
Trump raised the stakes over North Korea with the intention of reaching some kind of acceptable settlement but this approach only works if the various interested parties have sufficient wiggle-room. China does not want a South Korea-led unified Korea allied to the US...
US Trade Deficits
North Korea tensions complicate matters and make it harder for Trump to target allies for perceived economic transgressions. After the NAFTA talks have concluded we expect the trade focus to move largely towards China as Germany is within a complex EU structure. If...
Trump, Trade and War
Some treated the removal of Steve Bannon from the White House as an unambiguous victory for common sense and globalism more generally. We believe that his removal has the potential to increase volatility in decision-making as the real source of instability is Trump...
The Future of European Finance
The UK internal debate on Brexit is operating in a vacuum, without taking EU views into consideration. EU politicians want to gain a Brexit dividend in the financial sector - jobs (not equally spread out) but also a greater political control over the sector. Trying to...
Trump and Trade
The focus on tackling trade policy comes from presidential weakness - especially in areas of interaction with Congress. As the Russia investigation further hampers the Republican legislative agenda we expect greater reliance on unilateral action by Trump. To maintain...