Articles
External Influences
Having looked at many internal cognitive biases that impact on investment decisions we now analyse external factors. Weather has a well-documented impact on market prices, albeit short-term, while remaining outside of human control. The insertion of cultural symbols...
How to Create a Bubble
In order to demonstrate how easily a bubble can now be inflated we review a theoretical process for artificially creating one. Inception involves creating something that sticks in the memory and is then manipulated to trigger multiple biases. The aim is to get emotion...
Bubbles Are Not All Bad
Behavioural Economics is not just about defining biases and naming them, it is concerned with generating greater understanding of decision-making and improving outcomes. Information overload promotes the use of biases and heuristics but this might not be a bad thing,...
Defining an Economic Bubble
Traditional definitions of a bubble point to divergence between market prices and intrinsic value but the usefulness of this is limited by the perennial problem of estimating underlying value. We believe that a better description is where mass irrational action cannot...
Optimism and Fear of Loss Biases
Biases of all sorts are basic human instincts but these can generate negative investment outcomes unless mitigation strategies are in place. A poisonous cocktail often includes: optimism bias, fear of loss bias and fear of missing out bias. Using a rational and...
Default Options and Nudge Theory
Cognitive biases inform decisions made every day. When nudging clients towards outcomes favoured by programme creators simple rules should be applied - 1) forcing people to make choices allows them to 'own' the consequences; 2) binary or limited choice decisions reach...