World Events Summary: 6th-13th June 2018

Singapore Summit: a predictable result, with far-reaching consequences. Trump claimed ‘mission accomplished’ and that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat, after a symbolic document was signed. A long-term process, yet to be fully-determined, seems to have started but by declaring victory prematurely Trump has given North Korea (and China) the ability to destroy such claims with relative ease.

Consequences: we believe that, as long as a denuclearization process continues, Trump’s behavior towards trade with China will be constrained. This, presumably, means he will have to double-down on efforts to raise tensions elsewhere – probably why the G7 went as it did. The disregard towards alliances came through in Singapore – with Trump’s unilateral ending of U.S.-South Korean military exercises.

ZTE: Trump’s team made the deal (US$1bn fine, suspension of U.S. export ban) before the Singapore summit but the Senate has added wording to the defence budget in an attempt to reinstate the ban.